Saturday, April 17, 2004

And here is my next prescient prediction....

I mentioned earlier that George Bush is running out of money, or at least, his campaign is not as flush with money relative to that of Kerry as was earlier thought would be the case at this point in the election.

Up till now, a lot of corporate and business interests have supported Bush
because they love his policies and want to do everything they can to help him win. But others with less ideological zeal for Bush have probably supported him because they figured he would win no matter what, and they wanted to have the influence that would go along with supporting his campaign.

But the picture now has considerably changed: few would have predicted last summer that Kerry (or any nominee) would be neck and neck with Bush at this point in the campaign, and financially competive adwise. And no one predicted that Bush, who planned to run a campaign based on "steady leadership" would have his leadership credentials questioned and placed in doubt to such an extent.

So the question is, when are things going to tip? The accepted political calculus of this election has already shifted from an inevitable Bush victory to somewhere between a tossup and Bush in serious trouble (those two categories could very well mean the same thing). Corporate political donors might be somewhat behind the curve on this, but it seems it's only a matter of time before they catch on as well, and when they do, they're likely to start hedging their bets between Bush and Kerry.

Just as some who now disagree with Bush have contributed to his re-election effort because they thought victory would be inevitable, the exact opposite may occur, with reactionary corporate interests supporting Kerry in the hopes that they will not be totally spurned when he takes office.

But it seems that the hedging of bets might be just the first step in the cycle.
Think about it: Bush having considerable trouble now, and that is with a bevy of corporate support. If the plug gets pulled on a great deal of that support, (barring outside events which turn the tide of public opinion in his favor) he will be truly finished and he will probably lose the remainder of the corporate support. So empirically speaking, the President is almost toast.

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