Tuesday, May 11, 2004

Kerry in a landslide

Chuck Todd of Washington Monthly offers a heartening prediction of the 2004 presidential election: Bush is probably toast.

Elections that feature a sitting president tend to be referendums on the incumbent--and in recent elections, the incumbent has either won or lost by large electoral margins. If you look at key indicators beyond the neck-and-neck support for the two candidates in the polls--such as high turnout in the early Democratic primaries and the likelihood of a high turnout in November--it seems improbable that Bush will win big. More likely, it's going to be Kerry in a rout.
Many months ago, I started telling people that 2004 was going to be a repeat of 1992 -- that Bush II would go down in flames just like his daddy. Granted, I started believing it back when I thought Howard Dean was going to be the nominee. And granted, some days even a slim Kerry victory seems too much to even hope for, much less a blowout. But Bush cannot help shooting himself in the foot. He's barreling down the road to hell and won't even pause to consider whether he might not be on the right path. His aw-shucks pal-o-mine frat-boy demeanor will wear on people when the economy is down, people are jobless, and American soldiers keep coming home in coffins.

By no means is the election a done deal -- and by no means should liberals do anything less than everything possible to defeat Bush in November -- but we really can win this thing and boot his ass back to Texas.


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