Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Note: Fake Poll.

As the prior post should suggest, but some people apparently didn't catch, this post with Gallup numbers is a joke (much like Gallup itself). The thing about Gallup is that they always oversample Republicans in their surveys, thus inflating support for Bush. This tongue in cheek post was merely meant to go to an extreme to illustrate the problem with Gallup polling. It was not meant to imply that I thought Kerry was losing or that you should not vote for him. Please vote for Kerry. Please, please, please.

New Gallup Poll out

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,538 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 24-25, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Sampling size 53 % Republican, 18 % Democrat, 14% independent.


LV: Bush 59 Kerry 38

RV: Bush 57 Kerry 41

Wow, that is quite disturbing. Clearly Kerry has no chance of winning. Why even vote?

Note: This is a joke, this poll is fake. Kerry is winning.
Mr. Newport, what's your take on this?

Bush Kerry Nader DK Oct

Florida 46% 49% 1% 4% 23-25

Ohio 47% 49% * 4% 23-25

Pennsylvania 47% 50% * 3% 23-25

Wisconsin 47% 47% 2% 4% 16-19

New Mexico 46% 48% 1% 5% 16-18

New Hampshire 47% 46% 1% 6% 16-18

Oregon 44% 49% 2% 5% 9-12

Iowa 47% 47% 2% 4% 10-12

* Ralph Nader is not on the ballot

Notably, the numbers for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are the most recent ones. Perhaps the older numbers for the other states are the only reason why Kerry doesn't have an outright lead in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

Oh yeah, and Zogby has Kerry leading in Colorado (but strangely down slightly in other key states).